The use of multisimulation in determining fire hazards in buildings covered by expertise

The Main School of Fire Service, Faculty of Fire Safety Engineering, 52/54 Slowackiego St., 01-629 Warsaw, Poland

^* Corresponding author: tomasz.wdowiak.sgsp@gmail.com

Abstract

The variety of architectural solutions of buildings and the multitude of purposes to which they will be used enforces the use of solutions not directly provided for in the law. To ensure an adequate level of safety are used replacement and substitution conditions. The currently functioning system of expert opinions is based on expert knowledge, which is often difficult to assess and gives divergent solutions for similar cases. Development of an objective and repeatable method of matching optimal solutions to the threat of fire is an area of current research in the field of fire safety engineering. The subject of the work covered the process of determining the scenarios causing the greatest threat while estimating the probability of its appearance. Using the multisimulation method - multiple simulations for a given object with determine variables is established the probability distribution of specific negative events. Variables are drawn based on distributions developed with statistical methods from historical data. The method is based on the known input data - British Standards and with keeping a sufficiently large number of draws gives reproducible results - probability distributions. In addition, the model can be expanded with new variables and adapted to atypical issues.