Temporal and spatial prediction of retailer growth

Industrial Engineering Programme, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, 55281 Yogyakarta, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: bertha_sopha@ugm.ac.id

Abstract

Retailers have significantly affected good distribution and eventually transportation cost, traffic congestion, and pollution. Understanding spatial development of retailers is therefore of importance in planning logistics particularly in urban areas. The present research aims at predicting retailer growth both temporally and spatially. Both time-series forecasting using Holt’s model and spatial forecasting using ArcGIS were conducted. Results indicate that the existing retailers of Yogyakarta city have already exceeded the minimum requirement of retailers following the Indonesian National Standard, whereas other four districts have need of more retailers. Furthermore, it appears that the connectivity to the road network appears to be the important parameter in determining future location of retailers, contrasting traditional perspective of clustered location at central business area.