Risk Assessment Prediction for Long Term Settlement using Monte Carlo Simulation for Open Dumping Area

¹ Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University Tenaga Nasional Berhad (UNITEN), Putrajaya Campus, Jalan Kajang, Puchong, 43000, Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia
² Institute of Energy Infrastructure, College of Engineering, University Tenaga Nasional Berhad (UNITEN), Putrajaya Campus, Jalan Kajang, Puchong, 43000, Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia.

Abstract

Currently, there are many abandoned open dumping areas that were left without any proper mitigation measures. Deformation properties of geo-materials are considered as the necessary information to perform sound and precise stability analysis both in overall or partial aspects. In the case landfill engineering, since Municipal Solid Waste, MSW, are the main material shaping the body of these constructions, having a proper background of the compressibility and stiffness of these materials to execute the stability analyses in design procedure is necessary. Open dumping area has a potential hazard such as the settlement of the dumping sites, the release of hazardous gas and pollution of the groundwater to the environment. The objective of this paper is to determine the risk assessment at the open dumping area after they has been closed using Monte Carlo Simulation method. The risk assessment exercise is conducted at the Kuala Lumpur dumping area. The rapid urbanisation of Kuala Lumpur coupled with increase in population lead to increase in waste generation. It leads to more dumping/landfill area in Kuala Lumpur. The first stage of this study involves the assessment of the dumping area and samples collections. It followed by measurement of settlement of dumping area using oedometer. The risk of the settlement is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation method. Monte Carlo simulation calculates the risk and the long-term settlement. The model simulation result shows that risk level of the Kuala Lumpur open dumping area ranges between Level III to Level IV i.e. between medium risk to high risk.