Forecasting Sales Volumes of Small and Medium-Sized Machine-Building Enterprises

Department of organization of engineering production, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, 620002, 19 Mira St, Ekaterinburg, Russia

^* Corresponding author: a.v.klyuev@gmail.com

Abstract

In the article, the authors considered the possibilities of forecasting sales based on the use of ABC analysis tools, the customer potential coefficient and the degree of customization of orders. The object of the study was five medium-sized machine-building enterprises. The method is based on static grouping and analysis of actual sales volumes in the context of customers and the range of orders. The peculiarity of these enterprises is the presence of a large pool of customers with low repeatability of orders. The analysis showed that the majority of Group A customers have low customer potential and stable or declining demand. The largest increase in orders was observed among the customers of Group B. The level of customization of the order increases customer loyalty, but increasing the level of customization reduces the economic efficiency of the activity. The authors suggest direct planning of the basic part of the sales volume based on the achieved level of orders by customers of Groups A and B with the customer potential above 1. The additional part of the sales volume determined by the goals of the enterprise, its resources and planned based on an increase in the level of customization.