System analysis of power consumption by nonferrous metallurgy enterprises on the basis of rank modeling of individual technocenosis castes

North Caucasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (State Technological University), Industrial Power Supply Department, 44 str. Nikolaeva, Russia

^* Corresponding author: kluev-roman@rambler.ru

Abstract

To increase energy efficiency at non-ferrous metallurgy enterprises, an integrated system approach for estimation of electricity consumption is needed. The paper presents the results of a rank analysis of the power consumption of individual castes of process equipment on the basis of an integrated energy survey of the enterprise. A methodology for constructing mathematical models for calculating and predicting electric power consumption for all castes of the ranked H-distribution of technocenosis has been developed. For the first time, according to the established regularity of the H-distribution, a mathematical model for predicting power consumption has been developed, including a quantitative analysis of the energy characteristics of consumers by individual castes of technocenosis. A retrospective check of the relative error in the prediction of electricity consumption showed that for the model it does not exceed 2%, which is significantly lower than the relative error of the prediction for a number of models of other types. The received model is recommended for use in the automated system of dispatching control of power consumption for the purposes of short-term forecasting of electric power consumption at industrial enterprises of non-ferrous metallurgy.