MATEC Web Conf.
Volume 204, 2018International Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Conference 2018 (IMIEC 2018)
|Number of page(s)||8|
|Published online||21 September 2018|
Demand forecasting in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) ED Aluminium Yogyakarta using causal, time series, and combined causal-time series approaches
Department of Industrial Engineering, Universitas PGRI Madiun, 63118 Madiun, Indonesia
2 Department of Industrial Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, 55281 Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
ED Aluminium is the biggest Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) with 90 number of workers and 1,5 ton ingot capacity for production (Isnaini, 2014). Inventory data in December 2015 indicates that some products are overstocked (9%) and stockout (83%). This condition can happend because that SMEs still using intuition to predict the number of demand. Inventory fluctuation causes the inventory cost increases while overstock happend and lost the opportunity cost during stockout. To avoid overstock and stockout, the determination of demand with exact method is needed and one of them can be solved by forecasting method. This study aims to find the best forecasting methods of demand in 2015 using causal, time series, and combined causal-time series approces that better than the actual condition. The results of this research is the best forecasting method used to predict the number of sales in January-November 2015, that are SARIMA (3,1,1)(0,1,1)12 for WB, SARIMA (1,1,1)(1,0,1)6 for WSD, SARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,0)6 for DE, SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,0)6 for PE, and SARIMA (2,1,3)(0,1,0)12 for PT.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
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