Application of machine learning methods in big data analytics at management of contracts in the construction industry

¹ SAS Institute ; Stanislavsky Street, 21, bld.1, Moscow, 109004, Russia
² AO Raiffeisenbank, Troutskaya Street, 17, bld. 1, Moscow, 129090, Russia
³ Moscow State University of Civil Engineering ; Yaroslavskoe Shosse, 26, Moscow, 129337, Russia

^* Corresponding author: mvalpeters@gmail.com

Abstract

The number of experts who realize the importance of big data continues to increase in various fields of the economy. Experts begin to use big data more frequently for the solution of their specific objectives. One of the probable big data tasks in the construction industry is the determination of the probability of contract execution at a stage of its establishment. The contract holder cannot guarantee execution of the contract. Therefore it leads to a lot of risks for the customer. This article is devoted to the applicability of machine learning methods to the task of determination of the probability of a successful contract execution. Authors try to reveal the factors influencing the possibility of contract default and then try to define the following corrective actions for a customer. In the problem analysis, authors used the linear and non-linear algorithms, feature extraction, feature transformation and feature selection. The results of investigation include the prognostic models with a predictive force based on the machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression, decision tree, randomize forest. Authors have validated models on available historical data. The developed models have the potential for practical use in the construction organizations while making new contracts.