Short-term Electricity Load Forecasting Model and Bayesian Estimation for Thailand Data

Sirindhron International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, PathumThani, Thailand

^a Corresponding author: kamal_chapagain@wrc.edu.np

Abstract

This paper proposes multi-equation linear regression model with autoregressive AR(2) method for modelling and forecasting a day ahead electricity load. AR(2) is used to show the dependency of next data on its previous two days data because the nature of electricity load consumption for the next day follow the pattern of previous days. Since, we allocate one equation for particular half hour, we need 48 separate equations to predict for one complete day. Parameters of model are estimated based on two different approaches- (i) Classical approach, and (ii) Bayesian approach. Classical or Ordinary Least Square approach estimates the parameters in terms of single value and hence its forecast is also single value, where as Bayesian approach includes the predictive distribution of electricity load due to multiple values of parameters. So, we can forecast electricity load not only from mean, but median and with other percentile values. In this paper, we use 70-percentile value for forecasting because the performance for all models accounts better in this percentile than that of mean and median forecast. Finally, we compare the performances where Bayesian estimation provides better and consistent performance than that of OLS estimation