A Multi-Hazard Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Bridge Failure Risk Considering Climate Change

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK

^* Corresponding author: mohamed.soliman@okstate.edu

Abstract

Climate change has recently been recognized as a significant factor that can drive changes to current design and life-cycle assessment practices of infrastructure systems. The instability in temperature profiles and precipitation patterns in recent decades indicate that the future flood hazard occurrence rate may not necessarily follow historical trends. In addition to the impact of climate change on flood hazard occurrence rate and the associated scour progression, it could also affect the corrosion propagation in structural components. This paper presents a probabilistic framework for quantifying the multi-hazard failure risk of bridges under gradual and sudden deterioration considering climate change. Downscaled climate data adopted from the global climate models are employed to predict the future streamflow and temperature profiles at a given location. These profiles are subsequently used to quantify future failure probability and risk under corrosion and flood hazard. The proposed framework is illustrated on an existing bridge located in Oklahoma.