Scenario approach in forecasting the efficiency of infrastructure projects for transport supply of international trade

Siberian Transport University, Dusi Kovalchuk st., 191, 630049, Novosibirsk, Russia

^* Corresponding author: vpnekhor@mail.ru

Abstract

In the current conditions for the development of the world economic system and against the backdrop of growing contradictions of various participants in trade and economic relations formed under the influence of both purely economic and political factors, when making investment decisions for the development of international business and projects, including infrastructure ones, it is necessary to take into account associated risks. Using the methodological approaches of system analysis of large-scale investment projects, which use expert methods to reduce the level of influence of risk factors and uncertainty, an analysis of the sensitivity of individual infrastructure projects to the influence of environmental factors was carried out. As a result of the study, it was shown that scenarios for the development of the external environment differently affect the infrastructure projects of different purposes that are allocated in the work. Each type of infrastructure projects has its own peculiarities: projects of transit value serve the trade and economic relations of European and Asian countries, infrastructure projects of regional importance contribute to strengthening trade and economic relations of border areas, and certain commercial railway lines provide access to mineral deposits. The findings can be used in forecasting the development of continental trade and economic relations, both in general and in individual industries, as well as in substantiating large-scale infrastructure projects that solve the problem of transport supply of international trade.