Forecasting of traffic flows and their development in the implementation of the transport strategy in the Far North

Siberian state University of water transport, Novosibirsk, Russia, Shchetinkina str., 33, 630099, Novosibirsk, Russia

^* Corresponding author: v.m.buneev@nsawt.ru

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the role of public policy in creating a favorable environment for the development of the national economy and improve social and economic well-being through the creation of a safe and convenient transport structure. Special attention of the authors is drawn to the Decree of the government of the Russian Federation of 22.11.2008 No 1734-R "On the transport strategy of the Russian Federation". The purposeful value of the above mentioned by-law is considered. As an indicator of the quality of transport services "Transport strategy of Russia until 2030", it assumes a steady increase in transport mobility of the population of the Russian Federation, as well as the integration of the Russian transport system into the international one. The results of forecasting of some key indicators of the Transport strategy are presented. Since the implementation of the strategy was actually launched back in 2009, it is already possible to judge the achievement (or, more precisely, the lack of achievement) of the criteria considered. It was found that there was a close link between the quantity of goods carried and the quantity of goods overloaded the net financial result and some other indicators. Feedback was identified between the same trait under study and the wear and tear of fixed assets. Thus, knowing the factors that have a direct impact on the result, you can manage it. And the achievement (or non-achievement) of the target indicators becomes an elective parameter influencing firstly on the variant of the development scenario (basic or innovative), and secondly, on the social and economic situation of the studied region. The main task of the state in the sphere of functioning and development of transport system of Russia.