MATEC Web Conf.
Volume 231, 201812th International Road Safety Conference GAMBIT 2018 - “Road Innovations for Safety - The National and Regional Perspective”
|Number of page(s)||8|
|Section||Vulnerable road users|
|Published online||16 November 2018|
Development of accident prediction models for pedestrian crossings
Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, ul. L. Kaczyńskiego 16, 00-637 Warsaw, Poland
* Corresponding author: email@example.com
In large Polish cities like Warsaw, pedestrians constitute almost 60% of road fatalities. Although traffic safety situation in general is improving, the numbers of pedestrians hit when crossing a road have not significantly decreased over the last six years. A negative binomial model was estimated for predicting accidents at unsignalised pedestrian crossings based on accident data from 52 crossings in Warsaw. A total of 58 pedestrian accidents were recorded at these crossings during the last seven years. The model shows that the number of accidents is less-than-proportional to both pedestrian and motorised traffic daily volumes. Other risk factors affecting pedestrian safety are: higher proportion of heavy vehicles and location in a mixed land use area. The model can be used with the Empirical Bayes method for an unbiased identification of high risk locations.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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