Risk level of landslide hazard at Probolinggo district, East Java

Geography Department, Faculty Mathematics, and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus Baru UI, Depok, 16424, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: ratna.saraswati@ui.ac.id

Abstract

Landslide is the third largest disaster in Indonesia, including in Probolinggo. Approximately 50% of Probolinggo regency area is a potential landslide region. This area is located in the southern part of Probolinggo regency with hilly terrain and slopes. The number of landslide events in 2015-2016 is recorded 21 events. Potential landslide hazard was analyzed by SINMAP (Stability Index Mapping) method using physic condition, slope, digital elevation model, and rainfall. The risk level of landslide hazard is derived from the crosstab between landslide hazard potential and vulnerability index covering exposure aspect, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity with variables consisting of population density, livelihood, the proportion of the vulnerable population, building quality, and the number of poor households. The high risk of landslide hazard in Probolinggo regency is found in four districts of Lumbang, Pakuniran, and Kotaanyar sub-district. Potential landslide areas are spread in the south of Probolinggo Regency, especially in Krucil subdistrict with 15-40 % slopes. Based on the spread of landslide location, as many as 81% of landslide locations occur in high and medium landslide potential areas.