Comparison methods of short term electrical load forecasting

^* Corresponding author: sallam.hartono@yahoo.com

Abstract

The supply of electricity that exceeds the load requirement results in the occurrence of electrical power losses. To provide the appropriate power supply to these needs, there must be a plan for the provision of electricity by making prediction or estimation of electrical load. Therefore the issue of electrical load forecasting becomes very important in the provision of efficient power. In this study, the author tries to build a model of short-term electrical load prediction using artificial neural network (ANN) with learning algorithm levenberg-marquardt (Trainlm), Bayesian regularization (Trainbr) and scaled conjugate gradient (Trainscg). Scope of research data retrieval is limited electrical load on the work area of Serang City. The results of this study show that the JST prediction of levenberg-marquardt (Trainlm) algorithm is better than the calculated prediction using Bayesian regularization (Trainbr) and scaled conjugate gradient (Trainscg) algorithms. The electric load prediction shows that the average error (Trainlm) is 3.37. Thus, it can be concluded that the electrical load prediction using the levenberg-marquardt (Trainlm) JST algorithm is more accurate than that of the Bayesian regularization (Trainbr) JST algorithm and the scaled conjugate gradient (Trainscg)