MATEC Web Conf.
Volume 246, 20182018 International Symposium on Water System Operations (ISWSO 2018)
|Number of page(s)||11|
|Section||Main Session: Water System Operations|
|Published online||07 December 2018|
Synchronous-Asynchronous Encounter Probability Analysis of High-Low Runoff for Jinsha River, China, using Copulas*
1 Yunnan Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Survey Design and Research Institute, Kunming 650021, China
2 Key Laboratory of urban and rural water safety and water saving and emission reduction in Yunnan, Kunming 650201, China
* Corresponding author, email: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability analysis of high-low runoff, which requires a description of the probabilistic properties of hydrological variables, is important in regional water resources management. This study aims to investigate this encounter probability for Jinsha River and its tributary Yalong River in southwest China. A bivariate distribution is used to model the runoff variables of the two rivers based on Copula theory. The Copula is a function that links the univariate marginal distributions to form the bivariate distribution. The bivariate distribution is then employed to determine joint and conditional probabilities. The study results indicate the encounter probability of mainstream runoff and tributary runoff in different periods, also illustrate the mainstream runoff distribution under the condition of knowing the tributary runoff distribution.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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