MATEC Web Conf.
Volume 246, 20182018 International Symposium on Water System Operations (ISWSO 2018)
|Number of page(s)||5|
|Section||Main Session: Water System Operations|
|Published online||07 December 2018|
The Study of Flood Forecast Based on Precipitation Ensemble Forecast
WULING POWER CORPORATION LTD., Changsha, China
Ensemble forecast which makes up for the lack of the single forecast, is a shift from deterministic forecast to probabilistic forecast. Based on the above ideas, this paper takes the Jianghua as study basin,and uses the ECWMF ensemble forecast precipitation data to drive the flood forecasting model for flood forecasting. The result shows that the ensemble forecast flood forecasting can get the range of runoff simulation. And 75% of the process line Q75 is used as a deterministic process line which can simulate the flood well. The method not only ensures the accuracy of flood forecast, but also prevents the period of flood. Reliability of the application of ensemble forecast in flood forecast is proved.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
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