Ensemble Trajectory Simulation of Large Jellyfish in the Yellow and Bohai Sea

North China Sea Marine Forecast Center of State Oceanic Administration, 266061, Qingdao, China

Abstract

Combining Lagrange particle tracking method with the ensemble forecasting concept, one ensemble trajectory model is developed for large jellyfish with vertical movement of jellyfish taken into account in the Yellow and Bohai Sea. Besides, this ensemble model can give quick simulation of drifting trajectories and potential affected range. The comparison between observation and simulation of jellyfish trajectories in the coastal waters of Qingdao and Qinhuangdao as the typical place of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea has been made. And the results indicate that the ensemble trajectory model is more reliable than single one, and could provide more useful information for emergency response of jellyfish bloom, especially under the circumstance that autonomic (vertical) movement of of jellyfish and its mechanism is not clear.