Optimizing the planting structure in Daxing District in 2020 based on inaccurate two-stage planning model and grey model

¹ China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 100048 Beijing, China
² Water Recourses and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, 100120 Beijing, China

^a Corresponding author: 86091263@qq.com

Abstract

In order to optimize the planting structure and use water more efficiently, an inaccurate two-stage planning model is proposed in this paper. This model can not only reflect uncertainty of the probability distribution in the form of the possible distribution interval, but also build a recourse relationship between expected benefits and penalties for failing to achieve target goals. The two-stage planning model, combined with the gray GM (1.1) model, is applied to Daxing district of Beijing to optimize and adjust planting areas of the grain crops, fruits and vegetables, and garden plots in 2020. In the meantime, three scenarios were established for comparative analysis. Results show that after optimization, the economic benefits of above-mentioned three planting areas in Daxing district in 2020 is 3.71 billion CNY, an increase of 348 million from 2016 CNY; the total water consumption is 64.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 62.79 million cubic meters from 2016. Results indicate that this model method is feasible for optimizing planting structure, and to some extent, can provide decision-making support and a theoretical basis for planting structure optimization and prediction in similar areas to Daxing district.