Research on power demand forecasting based on attention mechanism and deep learning network

¹ State Grid Energy Research Institute Co. LTD, State Grid, Beijing, China
² Electrical Engineering College, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

Abstract

Combining actual conditions, power demand forecasting is affected by various uncertain factors such as meteorological factors, economic factors, and diversity of forecasting models, which increase the complexity of forecasting. In response to this problem, taking into account that different time step states will have different effects on the output, the attention mechanism is introduced into the method proposed in this paper, which improves the deep learning model. Improved models of convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) that combine the attention mechanism are proposed respectively. Finally, according to the verification results of actual examples, it is proved that the proposed method can obtain a smaller error and the prediction performance are better compared with other models.