Analysis of the Relationship between Port Industry and Economic Growth Based on Cointegration Theory

¹ College of shipping economics and management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China

Abstract

The reciprocal covariance function between port Industry indicator and economic growth indicator is constructed according to time series, the cross spectral density between port industry indicator and economic growth indicator is obtained by Fourier transform after Yessentuki-Henning window truncation, and the correlation, coherence and leading lag relationship between port industry and economic growth were calculated by calculating the estimated values of mutual amplitude spectrum, coherence spectrum and phase spectrum. Then, the causality between port industry and economic growth is tested by cointegration theory, and the relationship between endogenous factors and exogenous variables is determined by impulse response and variance decomposition. The calculation results of the actual data show that the development of China’s port industry and economic growth maintain a high degree of consistency in the length of 3 to 4 years and economic growth will lead the development of the port industry 0.8 years to 1.1 years. The results of dynamic econometric analysis show that China’s port industry and economic growth are Granger reasons; China’s port industry has made a negative response to economic growth. The economic growth has made a positive response to the impact of the development of the port industry, and the response has gradually increased with the passage of time; China’s port industry and economic growth are affected by endogenous variables, and both of them affect each other in the course of development.