Simulation analysis of environmental pollution based on parallel data model

Through model verification and algorithm correction, many factors unfavorable to environmental protection existing in the production of export products abroad are analyzed. The growth trend of export trade volume of industrial industries and regions with a high degree of openness is generally consistent with the emission trend of environmental pollutants. Environmental pollution restricts China's economic growth and brings certain negative effects on China's economic growth, The relevant data analysis suggestions for improving the impact of export product production on environmental pollution are put forward.


Instructions
This paper uses parallel data, selecting the data of different regions at different times as sample observations, which can not only analyze the impact of national macro policies on environmental pollution, but also analyze the impact of different export trade industrial structure on environmental pollution.

Model settinG
Assuming that there is a linear relationship between export trade and environmental pollution, the relationship is expressed by the following formula: Model 1: if there is no individual influence and structural change on the cross section, the ordinary least squares estimation gives a consistent and effective estimation of sum. It is equivalent to putting the cross-sectional data of multiple periods together as sample data.
Model 2: variable intercept model, that is, the individual influence is different on the cross section. The individual influence is the influence of the ignored variables reflecting individual differences in the model, which is divided into fixed influence and random influence. Here Model 3: variable coefficient model, in addition to individual influence, there is also a changing economic structure on the cross section, so the structural parameters are different on different cross sections. here If hypothesis 2 is accepted, no further test is necessary, indicating that the sample conforms to model 1. If hypothesis 2 is rejected, hypothesis 1 should be tested to determine whether the slopes are equal. If hypothesis 2 is accepted, it means that the sample conforms to model 2. If hypothesis 1 is rejected, the sample conforms to model 3. The least squares parameter estimation of model 3 ( Then the sum of squares of the residuals of group I is Then the sum of squares of residuals of model 1 The following conclusions can be drawn from the above: independent; Therefore, the F statistic of test H2 is: Obviously, if it is very small, it is very small, below the critical value, accept hypothesis 2. Where S3 is the sum of squares of residuals of the model with constant intercept and coefficients, and S1 is the sum of squares of staggers of the model with variable intercept and coefficients.
The F statistic of H1 is: Obviously, if it is very small, it is very small, below the critical value, receiving hypothesis 1. Where S2 is the sum of squares of residuals of the model with varying intercept and constant coefficients, and S1 is the sum of squares of residuals of the model with varying intercept and coefficients. Given the significance level, check the F distribution table to obtain the critical value, compare it with the calculated F statistics, and determine whether to accept or reject assumptions H1 and H2.

Local data analysis
Taking export trade volume CK and waste gas treatment investment tzgas as influence variables and waste gas emission gas as dependent variables, the impact model of export trade volume and waste gas treatment investment on waste gas emission can be constructed: Taking export trade volume CK and wastewater treatment investment tzw as influence variables and wastewater discharge was dependent variables, the impact model of export trade volume and wastewater treatment investment on wastewater discharge can be constructed: The data can be obtained by introducing it into Eviews software. In the model, I = 1-31 represents 31 regions, t =2010-2020 represents 10 years, and the influence parameter k = 2.

Exhaust emission analysis
By using Eviews software, it is divided into three cases: fixed parameters, variable intercept and variable coefficient, and the corresponding residuals of the three exhaust emission models are obtained as follows: S3=8.94E+09，S2=1.51E+09，s1=9.62E+08. Thus, the F statistic is calculated as: F1=1.766 ， F2=25.71; N=31 ， T=9 ， K=2.The degrees of freedom of F statistics are F1 [60,186] and F2 [90,186], respectively. Given the significance level of 0.05, the critical value is: =1.338，H2 is rejected, so the model should adopt the form of variable coefficient.

Wastewater discharge analysis
Using the same method, the residual in the wastewater discharge model can be obtained: S3=9.73E+09，S2=1.49E+09，s1=9.77E+08, Thus, the F statistic is calculated as: F1=1.90，F2=21.6, Since n = 31, t = 10 and K = 2, the degrees of freedom of F statistics are F1 [60,217] and F2 [90,217], respectively. Given the significance level of 0.05, the critical value is: Therefore, our government should pay more attention to environmental governance, increase investment in environmental pollution governance, improve the operation and management level of environmental pollution governance facilities, standardize the operation market order of environmental pollution governance facilities, and ensure the sustainable development strategy.The specific measures may include: establishing a high-level environmental pollution monitoring network covering the whole country to monitor the degree of environmental pollution of production-oriented enterprises in real time. Establish environmental protection funds at the central and local levels. Special funds for environmental protection should also be set up separately in the financial budgets of all localities, cities and counties. The growth of the scale of environmental protection funds should be linked to the growth rate of industrial production;The use of environmental protection funds should be widely supervised by the society. The environmental protection department should regularly report the degree of environmental pollution and treatment effect in the region to the people's Congress at the same level and the public, and put forward specific rectification suggestions. This work is supported by Ministry of Education Foundation (Grant NO. SGXC03080201)and Horizontal project(Grant NO. 2019H014-001).