Automation of the Process of Modelling Sales Volume Dynamics of Light Weight Vehicles in the Russian Market, Using Customer Satisfaction as a Yardstick

This paper takes a look at the questions surrounding the analysis of sales volume forecast of light weight vehicle of selected Makes/Brands in the Russian Market, taking into consideration the rating distribution of customer satisfaction. The link between the changes and fluctuations in the sales of LWV in combination with the cyclical processes of the level of economic activity is being considered.


Introduction
This paper presents the results of intensive studies carried out by the Department of Road Transport Operations, Moscow State Automobile and Road Technical University (MADI), reflecting the identification of sales volume of light weight vehicle (hereinafter as LWV) in the retrospective period, with a subsequent modeling of sales volume forecast of all light weight vehicles introduced into the Russian market, as well as individual sets of selected makes and brands with the highest index of satisfaction level [1,2]. In same vein the, the relationship between sales volume, the change in economic situation because of the investment and business cycles, including the sphere of introducing the LWV into the Russian auto market is being taken into consideration.

Material and methods
From the study of the previous paper, the rationale behind the selection of a cluster of vehicle makes and brands with high index level of customer satisfaction of LWV (from the TOP-30), being introduced into the Russian automotive market, that contains BMW, Land Rover, Lexus, Honda, Mercedes, Toyota, Audi, Volvo (see figure 1). These LWV makes/brands has the highest customer satisfaction index level, the lower control boundary for a given probability of The differential function, expressing the distribution ratings of the satisfaction level of the selected LWV makes/brands can be seen in fig. 2. Assessment and constructive functions were based on the known locations of the mathematical apparatus of probability theory and mathematical statistics [6,9].  In accordance with the presented study plan, based on the statistical information of the «European Business Association (EBA)» (see. figure 1), the forecast model for the change in sales volume dynamics of LWV(Qt) for the short and medium term was achieved.
The trend reflecting the change in sales dynamics Q(t)=f(t) can be expressed using the regression equation of the form: where a0,a1,…,ai,…,an -regression coefficients; t -independent value of the current period of the year, which is calculated as: (2) In the expression (2) above, T stands for the variables of the current years from 2005 to 2025, while T0 is the year of reference to the origin of the coordinates which is 2004.
The statistical information of the «European Business Association (EBA)» [2], was used as the initial tool for forecasting Q(t)=f(t), see.  The results of the highlighted processed information shown in fig. 3 makes it possible to simulate the sales volume (Qt) within a period from 2005 to 2025-year (i.e. from t1=1 to tn=21) and obtain the predictive estimates of the changes in trends as well as the lower and upper true boundaries for a given probability γ=0,9, that is, • for the trend:  The wave behavioural pattern of Qt is a function of the change in economic situations in the LWV market, which is determined by investment plan and business cycle functioning of the economy (see figure 3), [5].

Conclusion
The obtained results allowed us to reasonably and purposefully approach the questions of forecasting the promotion/introduction of selected brand brands of passenger vehicles to the Russian market with the aim of subsequent justification of the possibility of developing the Inventory Management System (IMS) for spare parts and materials.