Potential cargo demand of Kuala Tanjung Port as international hub port in Western Indonesia

The Port of Kuala Tanjung will provide a logistical diversification opportunity in which the need for freight services for both export, import, and inter-island distribution through port will continue to increase. Seeing the magnitude of this potential, it is hoped that Kuala Tanjung Port can become an alternative International Hub Port in Western Indonesia that can provide added value for economic growth significantly. As a potential port to become an international Hub Port, Kuala Tanjung must have a large cargo demand, coming from its own hinterland as well as shifting from other nearby ports. The largest potential hinterland of Kuala Tanjung Port is in the form of oil palm and rubber plantations with derivative goods. Kuala Tanjung Port is predicted to accommodate 65% of total goods production in North Sumatra, both containerized and bulk liquid.


Introduction
Kuala Tanjung Port has the potential to become a hub of logistics for the Asia Pacific region (Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Republic of Indonesia). The development of the Port of Kuala Tanjung as the International Hub Port has been proclaimed by the government in the Blueprint of the National Logistics System (Sislognas) which is part of the Masterplan for the Acceleration of Economic Development and Expansion of Indonesia (MP3EI) and the Concept of Sea Tollway.
Kuala Tanjung Port will be developed as an Industrial Gateway Port that integrates a harbor with an industrial area of 3,000 Hectare and Sei Mangkei Special Economic Zone (SEZ). It has a natural depth location of -14 m LWS at a distance of 2.7 km from the coast with the waters around the port open directly to the Strait of Malacca. Kuala Tanjung Port is located on the east coast of North Sumatra Province. The location is strategic because it is on the busy path of world trade, the Strait of Malacca. In addition, the natural condition of the surrounding area is also considered the criteria as the International Hub Port, in addition to the growing industrial clusters around it [1][2][3][4][5][6].
The potential of hinterland of the Kuala Tanjung Port is enormous. Many large scale companies such as PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminum and PT Multimas Nabati Asahan and other industrial companies. The most dominant hinterland potential is the product of Palm Oil / CPO and its derivative goods, so that the Port of Kuala Tanjung can be an alternative port other than Belawan Port for the delivery of industrial products located in Batubara Regency and surrounding areas throughout Indonesia and export.
In addition, the existence of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Sei Mangkei in Simalungun Regency which has an area of 140 Ha and is 50 km from the Port of Kuala Tanjung will has opportunities for diversification in the field of logistics where the need of freight services for the distribution of goods through ports will continue to increase. Seeing the large potential of such demand, Kuala Tanjung Port is expected to be one of the International Hub Port in the Western Indonesia that can provide added value for economic growth significantly. This paper aims to analyze the potential of cargo (container and liquid bulk) at the Kuala Tanjung Port, so it can be predicted the capability of Kuala Tanjung Port as an alternative hub port in Indonesia.

Methodology
The analytical method used is descriptive analysis. Identification of hinterland area characteristics include geographical, socio-economic, PDRB, and commodity. The potential demand for sea transport generated by the hinterland area of Kuala Tanjung Port is analyzed using multiple regression. This analysis is based on the identification of potential sea transport demand in the hinterland area. To get the clarity of the potential used model time series of the last few years [7]. The general theoretical model is P = f (X1, X2 ... ..), with X1, X2 is the potential variable of demand for hinterland. The regression analysis model can made modeling the relationship between two or more variables. The general relationship for multiple regression is as follows:

Hinterland area of Kuala Tanjung Port
The location of Kuala Tanjung Port which is quite close to the Belawan Port, hinterland area of Kuala Tanjung Port and Belawan Port will be intersected. The determination of hinterland boundary of Kuala Tanjung port is based on the accessibility level of land transportation to access the port. In addition, hinterland area is also based on the state preference (level of desire) of business people to make the Kuala Tanjung Port as a gateway activity distribution of goods that shows on Figure 1.

Potential liquid bulk
The Bulk Liquid terminal is planned to have a production capacity of 3.5 million tons per year. Based on the result of the study before, considering the possibility of moving loading and unloading traffic from Belawan Port to Kuala Tanjung Port and based on the potential of the hinterland area of Kuala Tanjung Port and development of Sei Mangkei SEZ, the projected demand for liquid bulk as in the following table 1.

Potential of container
The Based on the result of potential demand analysis, total demand for container in Multirpurpose Terminal is the sum of the three components (geographic area, palm oil industry and rubber of SEZ Sei Mangkei) as presented in the following table. Stakeholder perceptions analysis is conducted with the aim of obtaining preferences from users to move from origin port to Kuala Tanjung port. This preference is expressed in units of probability of displacement. For example, if a preference score of 0.5 can be concluded that 50% of users will move from the origin port to Kuala Tanjung Port. Belawan Port and Tanjung Priok Port are made into 2 (two) harbors of comparison with reason (1) Belawan Port is an existing port operating in North Sumatra and (2) Tanjung Priok Port is a port in Indonesia that represents an international port.
Probability of shifting used for the Port of Kuala Tanjung is carried out using the Belawan Port Curve drawn from the Tanjung Priok Port curve. Figure 2 explains that if the Kuala Tanjung Port competes with Tanjung Priok Port, then to reach the equilibrium point, Kuala Tanjung Port must be able to operate with TRT for 14 hours. While, the real condition, Kuala Tanjung Port compete directly with the Belawan Port. Therefore, the 14 hour TRT value is then inputted as an input in the transition curve at Belawan Port. By entering the TRT input for 14 hours, we have a transition probability of 65%. That is, if the Kuala Tanjung Port operates with TRT for 14 hours it will occur a transition of 65% from Belawan Port to the Kuala Tanjung Port.

b. Demand based on hinterland geographic aspect
Based on geographical aspects of hinterland, Kuala Tanjung Port will be able to attract demand from several provinces, namely North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, and Jambi. Demand projection is done by using multilinear regression model which variables are provincial PDRB, production of potential commodities such as palm, rubber and coffee.
Here is an example of multilinear regression model development for several commodities in North Sumatera Province. Kemenhub study (2014), demand from North Sumatra is predicted to be captured by Container Terminal (International Hub) of Kuala Tanjung Port. However, taking into account the operation of Multipurpose Terminal then the prediction is modified on the basis that there will be a container demand that is shifted to the multipurpose terminal. Figure 3 shows the number of transitions that occur for each terminal.

Fig. 4. Proportional shifting of North Sumatra demand to Kuala Tanjung Port
From Figure 4 can be seen that with the operation of multipurpose terminals, demand for containers will be divided between Multipurpose Terminal and Terminal Hub International. Based on preference, it is predicted that 65% of total production in North Sumatera will go to Kuala Tanjung Port and demand will be equally divided between the two terminal.

d. Total demand of container (multipurpose and hub-international)
The projection of demand for Container Terminal of Kuala Tanjung Port is presented in Figure 4 for 5 years demand. Alternative projection is done with a pessimistic approach, moderate, optimistic and very optimistic. Based on the results of analysis, prediction of Container Terminal (International Hub) based on a pessimistic approach will capture demand of 2.3 Million TEUs in 2019, and increase to 14.5 million TEUs in, 2042, Based on a moderate approach will be able to capture demand by 3.6 Million TEUs in 2019, and increase to 30.5 million TEUs in 2042. Based on the optimistic approach will capture demand by 8, 1 Million TEUs in 2019, and increased to 43.8 million TEUs in 2042. While based on a very optimistic approach will capture demand of 16.2 Jt TEUs early in 2019, and increased to 57.1 million TEUs in 2042. It is also known that over time the demand growth rate will decrease indicates that demand is starting to show saturation.

Conclusion
The development of Kuala Tanjung Port is predicted to accommodate 65% of total goods production in North Sumatra, both containerized and bulk liquid.