Research on Navigation Safety Evolution of Arctic Route Based on Entropy Theory

In recent years, with global warming, the development and utilization of the Arctic route has become possible. At present, the Arctic route navigation safety environment is the main factor that affects the passage of the Arctic route, so this paper mainly analyzes the development of the navigation safety environment of the Arctic route. First of all, using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to analyze the influence factors of the navigation safety of the Arctic route, the structure diagram of the navigation safety system of the Arctic route is divided. Secondly, according to the characteristics of navigation safety system of the Arctic route, entropy theory and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process are used to calculate the entropy values of navigation safety of Arctic routes, and the evolvement trend of navigation safety of Arctic routes is obtained. Finally, through the analysis of the trend of the Arctic route navigation security, some management countermeasures are put forward for the navigation safety of the Arctic route. The research results can provide reference for the development and utilization of the Arctic route.


Introduction
With the development of global warming and science and technology, human activities in the Arctic area are increasing day by day, and ships are sailing more frequently in the arctic. Due to the complex environment in the Arctic, the safety of ships in the Arctic region has attracted wide attention. In order to better understand the security of Arctic routes, it is necessary to analyze the evolution of the Arctic routes. In recent years, the economic value of Arctic routes has been studied more than [1,2,3]. But little research for the Arctic route navigation environment, mainly Li Zhenfu respectively using the navigation environment model to explain the structure of Arctic route analysis and comprehensive safety evaluation method of Arctic route navigation environment by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [4,5]. The existing assessment of the Arctic sea route safety environment mostly focuses on the evaluation of the navigation environment of the Arctic route without taking into consideration the factors of the Arctic route and the participation of management factors. The data show that 80% of the accidents are caused by human factors, 80% of which are caused by improper management. Therefore, although the geographical environment of the Arctic route is very important for the assessment of the security environment of the Arctic routes, human factors and management factors are also indispensable. The navigation safety of the Arctic route is a systematic project, and the navigation safety of the Arctic route should be analyzed from the point of view of the system. Therefore this paper on Arctic route navigation safety evolution analysis method and safety entropy theory combining fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and the use of safety system management method for the demonstration of the evolution trend, put forward the Arctic route navigation safety management countermeasures.

FAHP
AHP is widely used in multi attribute decision making method, but does not take into account the ambiguity of the people when they make decisions accordingly, fuzzy set theory and AHP combined with Fuzzy AHP method is proposed to fully considering the fuzziness of expert decision-making, and effectively reduce the AHP the inconsistency. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process can analyze the system, divide the subsystems of different levels, and calculate the weights of different attributes [6].

Safety entropy theory
Entropy was put forward by T.Clausius in 1854. It is mainly used to describe the state of a system, and the order of the system state is represented by the entropy value. Originally, entropy was mainly applied to statistical physics and thermodynamics, and later expanded to biology, information theory and astrophysics, and then extended to various fields of natural science and some fields of social science. Entropy theory belongs to the initial stage in the application of security field. In this paper, we will expand the application of the safety entropy to analyze the evolution mechanism of the navigation safety system of the Arctic route.

Safety system management
Security system management is a comprehensive approach to ensure the safe operation of the system, mainly by using the laws and principles of safety science, system science and management science [7]. The main method of analysis is to analyze the state of the security system first, secondly, analyze the hidden security problems in the security system, and finally put forward some management countermeasures to the security system by using management methods.

Computing method
Firstly, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the system. Fuzzy AHP is used to analyze the hierarchical structure of the problem, and the complex problem is decomposed into several relatively simple sub structures. And through the fuzzy comparison of the 22 elements, and then obtain the weight of each element, and then get the relative important order. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a widely used method for partitioning the weights between different attributes. The definition of [8] set matrix is an interval judgment matrix: Where the upper and lower bounds of the interval values are represented respectively. If satisfied, The interval judgment matrix is the interval reciprocal judgment matrix. The calculation of matrix, [9] Islam's method, this method can not only solve the consistency of interval reciprocal judgment matrix, but also can not satisfy the consistency for interval complementary judgment matrix is obtained by the weight vector is calculated as follows: It represents the offset distance that deviates from the lower bound of the interval; represents the deviation distance that deviates from the upper bound of the interval; it is the weight of different attributes. Secondly, the utility function is used to calculate each attribute value, and different kinds of data are calculated. The concrete formula is as follows: Thirdly, the entropy theory is used to calculate the entropy of each attribute of the security system.
The article is a factor of safety; safety is the safety factor of the entropy is a factor of safety; safety; undetermined coefficient is, is an undetermined coefficient in order to facilitate and other combination of theory, which can be assigned to 1. The total entropy of safety can be weighted by the sum of the entropy of different attributes, and the concrete formula is as follows: Among them is the weight of the first attribute, which can be obtained by formula (1).
Only when the total entropy of the security system =0 S , the security system in a most secure state, the system can be safe and orderly development of stability. The probability of occurrence of a safety accident is at its lowest level. Since the minimum value S is 0, the greater the value in any case 0 S  , the more insecure the system state is S . The following analysis of the safety system changes according to different situations. , the state of the safety system was shown to move to a steady state at a steady rate. When 2 2 / 0 d S dt  , the state of the safety system was shown to move towards a state of instability at a slower rate. To sum up, for the analysis of system security evolution, the steps are as follows: Step 1 calculate the attribute weight of the security system according to formula (1) Step 2 normalize the attribute values of the security system according to the formula (2) step 3, according to formula (3) and (4), each attribute value of the security system is calculated by entropy Step 4 calculate the total entropy of the safety system according to formula (5) Step 5, according to different system security change scenarios, make different security management countermeasures.

evolution calculation of navigation safety system of Arctic route
The security environment of the Arctic route plays an important role in the navigation and exploitation of the Arctic route. Therefore, it is very necessary to evaluate the security environment of the Arctic route. There are many factors affecting the safe navigation of the Arctic route. This paper uses fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to systematically analyze the security status of the Arctic routes from three aspects, such as human, machine and environment. From the analysis of human factors, the main factors included safety awareness, safety operation, emergency response, risk identification and improper behavior. From the factor analysis of aircraft, the main factors included ice breaker, port infrastructure, navigation instruments, communication equipment and rescue equipment. From the analysis of environmental factors, the factors included ice, visibility, wind, channel width and water depth, channel obstacles, tides and currents, polar front and cyclones. The detailed structure is shown in figure 1. The Arctic route number of ship navigation data mainly from the northern sea route official information (http://www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits), ice area data mainly comes from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (https://nsidc.org/data).

Management Countermeasures of navigation safety system in Arctic route
Although with the melting of Arctic ice, Arctic route navigation safety system is in the transition phase to a safe condition, but the Arctic route navigation safety system there are still many problems, such as the Arctic route along the port infrastructure is seriously insufficient, the sovereignty issue, such as lack of communication equipment. In view of these problems, the following suggestions are put forward.

conclusion
Based on the entropy theory, the application of existing entropy theory in the field of security development, put forward the analysis method of security system evolution, and using this method the evolution trend of Arctic route navigation safety system are analyzed, the results found that the Arctic route navigation safety system is in the transition phase to a safe condition. However, there are still some hidden dangers in the navigation safety system of the Arctic route. Therefore, this paper puts forward some management countermeasures for the navigation safety system of the Arctic route. In addition, the evolution of the navigation safety of the Arctic route in space is worthy of further attention.