Developing the City-Level Climate Change Master Plan : The Case of Energy Sector in Bangkok

This study focuses in the developing energy sector plan of city-level climate change master plan in Bangkok, the capital city of Thailand. The energy consumption, which consists of electricity and fossil fuels, are investigated and forecasted to be Business-as-Usual (BaU) scenario covering year 2013 to 2023 by using trend analysis. The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission mitigation scenario was then analyzed by applying the energy reduction from the national energy efficiency development plan as well as the own reduction activities by Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA). We can conclude that if the national energy efficiency plan can fully implemented, the GHG reduction potential of the city from energy sector would be at around 18% from BAU in 2023 from all energy conservation and renewable energy measures.


Introduction
Climate change is one of the largest challenges to the current and future development of human society.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its 5 th Assessment Report [1] and warned that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.Hence, the long-term climate change policies and plans which focus mainly in mega-city level are very important to each country due to the very high impact to overall GHG emission of the country.
The World Bank Study [2] pointed out that Bangkok Metropolitan Region (consists of Bangkok, Nonthaburi province, Samut Prakarn province, and Pathum Thani province) might face a serious challenge by climateinduced large scale flooding within the next 50 years and urged actions to increase the readiness to cope with such extreme events [3], [4].Bangkok area was hit by a large scale flooding in 2011 with huge economics and social loss were recorded.
BMA also implemented the Bangkok Action Plan on Global Warming Mitigation 2007-2012 [5], aiming at the GHG reduction of 15% by undertaking five initiatives as follows: (i) expansion of mass transit and improvement of traffic system, (ii) promotion of the use of renewable energy, (iii) improvement of building electricity consumption efficiency, (iv) improvement of solid waste management and wastewater treatment efficiency, and (v) expansion of park areas.After ending of the plan on 2012, BMA policymakers had efforts to develop the next tenyear climate change master plan covering 2013 to 2023, by related sectors.This new master plan would support to the national climate change policy which Thailand will put her efforts to reduce the GHG in the range of 7 to 20% below the BaU in energy and transport sectors in 2020 through her NAMAs [6]- [8].
2 Scope of this study This paper focuses only on the development of the energy sector, the biggest emission source of Bangkok, which includes the mitigation actions in energy efficiency and renewable development activities in Bangkok and exclude the energy consumption in transport and waste sectors.The energy sector in this study then consists of BMA governmental category and other civil category (industry, commercial, and residential parts).It should be noted here that there are only few activities of agriculture sector in Bangkok, hence we neglected the agricultural sector of this city in this study.

Greenhouse gas emission type
The energy sector covers only CO 2 emissions from energy utilization.

Level of this study
In this study, we focus mainly in the entire Bangkok area.This level (hereafter, Bkk) would focus all energy consumption and reduction potential which occur in Bangkok city, as a whole area and focus all government and non-government categories.

Energy sector data collection
We investigated and developed our energy data structure into two main types; (i) electricity, and (ii) thermal energy.All data are covering the year 2009-2012.
In Bangkok area, secondary data is main source of collecting energy data which is divided into the data from all sectors responsible to Bangkok entire area.All of collected data can be divided into 4 energy types which are electricity, oil, natural gas and coal as followings:

Electricity
Electricity consumption data in Bangkok is collected in secondary data from Metropolitan Electricity Authority directly requested data, not publish) in the year 2009-2012, covering residential, small and large general service, specific business service, government institute, non-profit organization, and temporary user and public lighting.

Fuel and petroleum products
Oil consumption data in Bangkok is collected in secondary data from Department of Energy Business (DOEB) [9]and classified in gasohol (all types), gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, LPG and other types of oil.

Natural gas
NG data is collected in secondary data from PTT Plc.(directly requested data, not published).

Coal
Coal data is collected from Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE).

The BAU scenario
Like other climate change and energy plans, it is important to see GHG emission amount by comparing cases without mitigation actions (business-as-usual or BAU) and with actions.In other words, how much GHG is reduced in quantity is one crucial approach to assessing the degree of success in mitigation actions in an objective way.In this Master Plan, GHG emissions have also been quantified for the two emission scenarios, namely the case of BAU and the case with emission reduction by taking mitigation actions.
Figure 2 illustrates the concept of how to develop our BAU of Bangkok climate change model in this study.By using the trend analysis from equation ( 1), the energy consumption in Bangkok area was then forecasted separately by each fuel type.Emissions estimate = AD t u EF (2) while AD = Activity data, in energy unit per year EF = Emission factor of each fuel type In this study, we applied the emission factor from Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories [9] in each thermal energy in BAU.

The GHG mitigation scenario
In GHG mitigation scenario, we focus to the GHG reduction potential from the energy efficiency and renewable energy in Bangkok, exclude transport and waste sector, covering the year 2013-2023.All steps present in figure 3.
In this Master Plan, possible mitigation actions are divided into two major categories; (a) actions which BMA can implement by themselves, and (b) actions which are implemented by other stakeholders within Bangkok area.It should be noted that the GHG emission from activities by BMA itself is less than 1% of the total emission from whole Bangkok area.Therefore, it is important to consider the effect of mitigation actions of category (b).In addition, because it is difficult for BMA to monitor and control the mitigation actions of category (b), we have selected related national plans to calculate GHG mitigation potential in entire Bangkok area.By using the national energy efficiency development plan (EEP) [10] and alternative energy development plan, we assume that the energy reduction potential in Bangkok, in percentage, is as same as the energy reduction of the country.This means that all calculation are based on the national plan but focus in city level.
In case of energy conservation, we can conclude the annual energy reduction which exclude transport and waste sector, in Bangkok as follows; For electricity conservation, based on EEP x Residential sector would be at 0.25% per year, x Commercial building would be at 1.5% per year, x Industry sector would be at 0.81 % per year For thermal energy conservation, based on EEP x Commercial building would be at 0.3% per year, x Industry sector would be at 0.5 % per year For emission actor, due to this study focus in the longterm period, hence the future energy consumption proportion would be very flexible.We then applied one universal figure of emission factor, average from various fuel types in Thai energy market.The emission factor in case of mitigation of oil and petroleum products would be at 3,500 tCO 2 /ktoe and electricity emission factor in the 10-year period would be at 0.59 tCO 2 /MWh (or 7,000 tCO 2 /ktoe).The results in this scenario in Bangkok illustrate in figure 4 and table 3 and the amount of GHG mitigation in Bangkok presents in Table 4.     From this scenario, we can conclude that if the EEP can fully implemented, it would reduce the energy by 17.83% while there is also potential of GHG emission reduction at around 18.00% from the BAU in the year 2023.However, it must be noticed that it is a potential but not the emission reduction target of the Master Plan.
Selected energy countermeasures including the GHG mitigation is presented in table 5. Most energy measures cover in three economic sectors while there is small potential of renewable energy in Bangkok except the solar roof top.Wind and biomass power plant are not easy to construct.On-ground solar farm is not economicfeasible because of the very expensive land.The energy conservation measures consist of the housekeeping, process improvement, major change equipment, and public awareness concept.The potential of energy conservation and renewable energy measures are adjusted from the national energy conservation potential.

Conclusions
This study focuses in the developing of city-level GHG mitigation master plan from energy sector in Bangkok.The energy consumption in all economic sectors except transport and waste sector are also investigated and forecasted to be BAU scenario covering year 2013 to 2023 by using trend analysis.
The GHG emission mitigation scenario was then analyzed by applying the energy reduction from the national energy efficiency plan.We can conclude that the energy reduction potential from energy sector would be at 17.83% while the potential of GHG emission reduction of the city from energy sector would be at around 18.0% from BAU in 2023 from all energy measures.

Figure 1 1 .
illustrates the Structure and sources of energy data in this study.means oil based petroleum products Figure Structure and sources of energy data.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Flow of BAU greenhouse gas emission calculation.

a
Promotion of low-carbon/energy saving detached house (Publicity of cost benefit from the viewpoint of LCC, backup exhibition) b Facility equipment introduction promotion of energy saving house (LED, energy saving air conditioning, etc.) a Publicity of cost benefit by repair work for energy saving b Promotion of repair work for energy saving (heat barrier film, renew air conditioning device, etc.) Promotion of energy saving home appliances a Purchase promotion of energy saving home electric appliances (air conditioning, fridge, TV etc.)

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Flow of GHG emission mitigation scenario from 2009 to 2023.

2.1 Economic sector classification BMA
develops the Bangkok Master Plan on Climate Change 2013-2023, which is the city level long-term climate change plan.It consists of five main sectors; i.e.(i) energy efficiency and renewable energy, (ii) environmental sustainable transport, (iii) efficient solid waste management and wastewater treatment, (iv) green urban planning, and (v) adaptation planning.

Table 1 .
Energy consumption in BAU in Bangkok.
(2)) while y = forecast of y, in energy unit t = time, annually The results of the forecasted energy consumption in BAU, presented in Table1, would then calculate into GHG value by using equation(2).Finally, BAU in Bangkok from the year 2013 to 2023 presents in Table2.

Table 2 .
GHG emission in BAU in Bangkok.

Table 3 .
Energy consumption in GHG mitigation scenario.

Table 4 .
GHG emission in GHG mitigation scenario.

Table 5 .
Selected countermeasures in GHG mitigation scenario of Bangkok master plan.